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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently serves as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. However, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

But the current competition is distinctly different. The group of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners falling away and recent also-rans ascending in unison. During an typical season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a wild and fun year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a typical campaign!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still