Daily Murders in the nation Fall 37% Under President Sheinbaum, According to Government Figures

The mean figure of daily killings monthly in Mexico has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per new official data. But, public safety analysts have warned that murder data could fail to point to improved countrywide stability.

Marked Decline in Daily Numbers

There was an mean of almost 55 homicides a day in November as opposed to almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the leadership in September. This data was provided by the chief of the nation's national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we’ve had over these months is remarkably significant,” the President stated, noting that the previous month the lowest figure of murders were recorded for any November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Violent cartel infighting, combined with the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to combat the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in the past few years. The rate reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure more than four times greater than the US. From that point, homicides have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has credited her public safety strategy for an apparently steeper reduction in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President stated: “We have a plan, we have monitoring of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Increased coordination between government departments.

Expert Caution and Data Concerns

But, security experts warned that focusing solely on murder numbers to draw a conclusion of improved security was misleading. This is notably true in light of the increase in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“That would be excellent information if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the murder numbers and say: ‘Alright, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

Per the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the same period the previous year. However, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer valid for estimating the situation of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who do not have the resources or the desire to correctly recognize and classify remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month means of everyday killings was additionally an issue because it might obscure days when there were notably spiking numbers of killings.

“Employing the per-day average makes high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

An area where the government can point to the success of its security strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and November 2025 for serious crimes, according to official figures. More than 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Anger

Yet despite these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with high violence, with a number of states in the grip of cartel-driven bloodshed. In the previous month there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the last 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of protesters demonstrated in the capital and across the nation to show their outrage at graft and cartel violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a way to create a story of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s very debatable,” the analyst said.