‘A Critical Scenario’: War on Iran Constricts India's LPG Availability.
The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now reaching India's kitchens.
As military actions on Iran impede energy deliveries through the key maritime chokepoint, supplies of kitchen fuel are dwindling across India, compelling restaurants to reduce offerings, reduce operating times and in some cases cease operations entirely.
Social media is awash with video clips showing crowds outside LPG distributors across Indian metros and localities as concerns over fuel supplies escalate. Businesses appear the hardest struck: the most severe shortage is in food service establishments.
"Conditions are critical. Kitchen fuel simply is unavailable," says a representative of the a major restaurant body.
Most food outlets run either on industrial fuel canisters or direct gas lines, and the shortages are now being felt across the country. "A lot of restaurants have closed - some in Delhi, many in the southern region. People are adopting coal and wood and electronic appliances to keep kitchens going."
City-Specific Fallout
In a western metro, media reports say up to a 20% of hotels and restaurants are already fully or partly shut as cylinder availability dry up. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some establishments say their gas stocks have shrunk with little backup. "We can only make coffee and no food items - it is nothing less than pathetic. Commerce will take a hit," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.
Restaurant operators are rushing to adjust. "Food options are being cut, some are cutting lunch service and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are varying as supplies ebb and flow. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a dynamic scenario."
Retailers observe a surge in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are selling out quickly.
Government Stance
Yet, the authorities maintains there is adequate supply.
India has more than 300 million domestic LPG users and authorities say stocks are being prioritized to households as geopolitical strain from the Middle East conflict ripple through energy markets.
About a majority of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about 90% of those consignments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital passage now significantly disrupted by the hostilities.
The petroleum ministry says that it ordered refineries to increase LPG output for domestic use, lifting domestic production by about 25%. Business-grade fuel is being prioritised for essential sectors such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".
"Unnecessary hoarding and hoarding has been triggered by rumors. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about 60 hours," says a government spokesperson.
Spreading Anxiety
Now the anxiety is moving beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of motorbikes outside a gas outlet. "The panic is real," the caption reads.
According to analysis from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be premature.
India imports almost all of its petroleum. Around 50% of its crude oil imports - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Middle Eastern nations.
Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the gap could be partly offset by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a industry commentator.
Based on maritime intelligence and credible market sources, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.
"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.
Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern
The key weakness is cooking gas, analysts say.
India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the Strait.
Refineries can modify output to extract a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only increase domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.
In short: "Crude supply risk can be moderately reduced through varied suppliers. Refined product supply remains largely sufficient. Cooking gas supply is the real variable to monitor in the coming weeks."
What may be heightening the anxiety on the ground is not just scarcity but erratic supply chains - and the common threat of hoarding.
An industry representative alleges exploitative practices.
"Suppliers are exploiting the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold at a premium."
For now, India's petroleum stocks may be protected by worldwide shipping. But in homes across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next cylinder.
